By Ben Smith
There are 5 head coaches that have been hired to coach teams next year. The Bears, Bills, Jets, Raiders, and 49ers have all filled their head coaching vacancies. Two other teams, the Broncos and the Falcons, are both still in the process of getting a coach. So next year John Fox, Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, Jim Tomsula, and Jack Del Rio will all be in charge of new teams, and both Bowles and Tomsula are first time NFL head coaches, outside of a few games as interim coaches. Some of these hires work and others do not, for various reasons. Today I’ll analyze and grade the hirings and give my opinion on what these teams need to do to improve on last year, and how the new coaches can change that.
Jack Del Rio- Oakland Raiders
I liked this hire, I thought Jack Del Rio had a pretty good tenure as the head coach of the Jaguars from 2003-2011, that team has one of the worst fan bases and one of the smallest markets in sports and subsequently have little money compared to other teams. Del Rio was only 3 games under .500 with the team and went to the playoffs two times, and won one game. So Del Rio has experience as a head coach and has experience dealing with both sides of the game, which is something that Oakland needs badly right now. Oakland’s offense and defense were both ranked in the bottom third in the league last year, with the offense ranked dead last. So Oakland cannot afford to take in someone like Adam Gase or Dan Quinn who really only have experience on one side of the football, and Del Rio is a good guy to get because he is a seasoned head coach who isn't going to be overwhelmed when managing both offense and defense.
Oakland hasn't been anywhere near good in over a decade now, and Del Rio will be expected to change that. The big task this year for Oakland is to get their offense going, namely Derek Carr, who had a "meh" rookie year but also had to deal with being surrounded by the worst offense in the league. Now, is Carr a future star? I doubt it, but he can at least reach the level of an Andy Dalton if coached right and given at least some help on offense. The defense is at least not completely a wreck, as they were ranked 21st after this season according to ESPN. However, Del Rio and his staff need to prove that they can make Carr a good QB and give him the pieces so he won’t have to carry that offense by himself, on top of improving the Defense. I think Oakland improves on their 3-13 record next season and while I think they still won’t make the postseason, they’ll do a little bit better under Del Rio, I can see them winning two or three more games then last last season and claw a little closer to contention.
Grade: B
Record next year: 5-11
John Fox- Chicago Bears
I still don’t really get why the Broncos parted ways with Fox, so many people say that his success was based solely on having Peyton Manning behind Center, but I disagree. People forget that John Fox was the coach of that Broncos team that had Tim Tebow at the helm, and he took a guy that was not fit to play for the NFL at all as his quarterback and not only got Tim Tebow to win the division and advance to the playoffs but win a playoff game against a team in the Steelers only one year removed from an AFC championship. Fox won the division every year he coached the Broncos and had two 13 win seasons and in his last year had a 12 win season. He has appeared in two super bowls with the Panthers and the Broncos and has over 10 years of head coaching experience, which makes him perfect for the bears. The bears have never hired a head coach with previous head coaching experience, and just had a massive flop with a first time coach so bringing in a tenured guy like Fox works.
The big issues with the bears is how to deal with Jay Cutler and improving the defense. Jay Cutler is one of the highest paid players in the league and ranked 21st in QBR despite projected ahead of Tom Brady this year in the ESPN preseason QB rankings. The Bears offense is very good, with two top WR’s in Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall and one of the best running backs in the NFL with Matt Forte. If the Bears can simply get Cutler going again (as getting rid of him seems unlikely at this point), this could be one of the top offenses in the NFL. Fox got Tim Tebow to win a playoff game, so getting Cutler back on track seems feasible. The defense on the other hand is a mess, being ranked 30th by ESPN this year. Fox, a defensive minded coach, needs to take advantage of his high draft pick and draft a player who will help fill the defensive void that has been left since the retirement of Brian Urlacher. Fox did a good job of turning Denver’s defense around in his years there, and while that defense wasn't as bad as the bears, they were certainly far from where they are now at his departure.
Overall, I think this was a very good hire from the Bears and they obviously realized what they needed most, which was experience and defense, and they get both with this hire. I don’t think the situation will be resolved immediately, and I think they are a long shot to make the playoffs next year, as they have two very talented teams in their division and will have a tough schedule. But I think if they make good draft picks, develop the defense, and make Cutler a quarterback at least close to worth the money he is getting then within two or three years I think the Bears will be playing in January again.
Grade: A-
Record next year: 8-8
Rex Ryan- Buffalo Bills
Ugh, really? Of all the places Rex Ryan could go and it would work, he chooses a team in the AFC East with no true franchise quarterback and a top defense already? This Bills team is everything that Rex Ryan had with the Jets and failed but now he has to deal with the longest streak of non-postseason appearances in the NFL too. Ryan is a very good defensive coach, but has a tendency to go to teams that already have good defenses, like the Jets and now the Bills. The Bills ranked 4th in total defense last year yet they go out and get a head coach who had a defense that ranked 6th last year and still ended up 4-12. This is because Rex Ryan’s problems with the Jets lied in his handling of team’s offense and finding a quarterback who works, the exact same issues he’s going to have when he goes to Buffalo. EJ Manual reeks of Mark Sanchez on the Jets, and Ryan is not diverse enough to handle coaching a poor offense and turning it into a great one. Yes Ryan is a fantastic defensive coach, but the defense isn't an issue in Buffalo, its one of the best in the NFL with or without Rex Ryan. Their problems lie in offense and Ryan simply cannot fix an offense, he's not good enough.
The only solution to this is that Ryan needs to bring in an extremely talented offensive coordinator and find a quarterbacks coach that will teach EJ Manual how to be a better NFL quarterback. The OC for the Bills needs to have a good amount of control over the offense to be successful with Ryan, because he is so limited on offensive coaching. However, Ryan strikes me as the type of guy who would never do that because he wants control of the offense and defense, and thus the offense struggles. Ryan would be a perfect fit in a place like Atlanta where the offense is pretty much figured out but the defense needs a lot of work, somewhere like that Ryan would likely succeed, but here we are just going to see more of the same from him, he’s already guaranteed the Bills will make the playoffs and win the division under him, really Rex? How did the guarantees work in your last job? He’s shooting himself in the foot by doing this and raising the expectations too high for fans.
I think the Bills take a step backward after getting to 9-7 this year, with Marrone leaving and Orton retiring we get a QB in Manuel who isn't very good and the offense will be one of the worst in the NFL next year. The defense will be great, but you need to score points in order for the defense to protect the game. This just isn't a good fit for Ryan and I think he’ll be out within three years as the Bills coach, unless he decides to drastically alter his coaching methods, which seems unlikely.
Grade: D
Record: 7-9
Tune in soon for part two where I will analyze the hiring of Todd Bowles by the Jets and promotion of Jim Tomsula to head coach on the 49ers, on top of who I think both the Broncos and the Falcons should hire as their next head coach!
There are 5 head coaches that have been hired to coach teams next year. The Bears, Bills, Jets, Raiders, and 49ers have all filled their head coaching vacancies. Two other teams, the Broncos and the Falcons, are both still in the process of getting a coach. So next year John Fox, Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, Jim Tomsula, and Jack Del Rio will all be in charge of new teams, and both Bowles and Tomsula are first time NFL head coaches, outside of a few games as interim coaches. Some of these hires work and others do not, for various reasons. Today I’ll analyze and grade the hirings and give my opinion on what these teams need to do to improve on last year, and how the new coaches can change that.
Jack Del Rio- Oakland Raiders
I liked this hire, I thought Jack Del Rio had a pretty good tenure as the head coach of the Jaguars from 2003-2011, that team has one of the worst fan bases and one of the smallest markets in sports and subsequently have little money compared to other teams. Del Rio was only 3 games under .500 with the team and went to the playoffs two times, and won one game. So Del Rio has experience as a head coach and has experience dealing with both sides of the game, which is something that Oakland needs badly right now. Oakland’s offense and defense were both ranked in the bottom third in the league last year, with the offense ranked dead last. So Oakland cannot afford to take in someone like Adam Gase or Dan Quinn who really only have experience on one side of the football, and Del Rio is a good guy to get because he is a seasoned head coach who isn't going to be overwhelmed when managing both offense and defense.
Oakland hasn't been anywhere near good in over a decade now, and Del Rio will be expected to change that. The big task this year for Oakland is to get their offense going, namely Derek Carr, who had a "meh" rookie year but also had to deal with being surrounded by the worst offense in the league. Now, is Carr a future star? I doubt it, but he can at least reach the level of an Andy Dalton if coached right and given at least some help on offense. The defense is at least not completely a wreck, as they were ranked 21st after this season according to ESPN. However, Del Rio and his staff need to prove that they can make Carr a good QB and give him the pieces so he won’t have to carry that offense by himself, on top of improving the Defense. I think Oakland improves on their 3-13 record next season and while I think they still won’t make the postseason, they’ll do a little bit better under Del Rio, I can see them winning two or three more games then last last season and claw a little closer to contention.
Grade: B
Record next year: 5-11
John Fox- Chicago Bears
I still don’t really get why the Broncos parted ways with Fox, so many people say that his success was based solely on having Peyton Manning behind Center, but I disagree. People forget that John Fox was the coach of that Broncos team that had Tim Tebow at the helm, and he took a guy that was not fit to play for the NFL at all as his quarterback and not only got Tim Tebow to win the division and advance to the playoffs but win a playoff game against a team in the Steelers only one year removed from an AFC championship. Fox won the division every year he coached the Broncos and had two 13 win seasons and in his last year had a 12 win season. He has appeared in two super bowls with the Panthers and the Broncos and has over 10 years of head coaching experience, which makes him perfect for the bears. The bears have never hired a head coach with previous head coaching experience, and just had a massive flop with a first time coach so bringing in a tenured guy like Fox works.
The big issues with the bears is how to deal with Jay Cutler and improving the defense. Jay Cutler is one of the highest paid players in the league and ranked 21st in QBR despite projected ahead of Tom Brady this year in the ESPN preseason QB rankings. The Bears offense is very good, with two top WR’s in Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall and one of the best running backs in the NFL with Matt Forte. If the Bears can simply get Cutler going again (as getting rid of him seems unlikely at this point), this could be one of the top offenses in the NFL. Fox got Tim Tebow to win a playoff game, so getting Cutler back on track seems feasible. The defense on the other hand is a mess, being ranked 30th by ESPN this year. Fox, a defensive minded coach, needs to take advantage of his high draft pick and draft a player who will help fill the defensive void that has been left since the retirement of Brian Urlacher. Fox did a good job of turning Denver’s defense around in his years there, and while that defense wasn't as bad as the bears, they were certainly far from where they are now at his departure.
Overall, I think this was a very good hire from the Bears and they obviously realized what they needed most, which was experience and defense, and they get both with this hire. I don’t think the situation will be resolved immediately, and I think they are a long shot to make the playoffs next year, as they have two very talented teams in their division and will have a tough schedule. But I think if they make good draft picks, develop the defense, and make Cutler a quarterback at least close to worth the money he is getting then within two or three years I think the Bears will be playing in January again.
Grade: A-
Record next year: 8-8
Rex Ryan- Buffalo Bills
Ugh, really? Of all the places Rex Ryan could go and it would work, he chooses a team in the AFC East with no true franchise quarterback and a top defense already? This Bills team is everything that Rex Ryan had with the Jets and failed but now he has to deal with the longest streak of non-postseason appearances in the NFL too. Ryan is a very good defensive coach, but has a tendency to go to teams that already have good defenses, like the Jets and now the Bills. The Bills ranked 4th in total defense last year yet they go out and get a head coach who had a defense that ranked 6th last year and still ended up 4-12. This is because Rex Ryan’s problems with the Jets lied in his handling of team’s offense and finding a quarterback who works, the exact same issues he’s going to have when he goes to Buffalo. EJ Manual reeks of Mark Sanchez on the Jets, and Ryan is not diverse enough to handle coaching a poor offense and turning it into a great one. Yes Ryan is a fantastic defensive coach, but the defense isn't an issue in Buffalo, its one of the best in the NFL with or without Rex Ryan. Their problems lie in offense and Ryan simply cannot fix an offense, he's not good enough.
The only solution to this is that Ryan needs to bring in an extremely talented offensive coordinator and find a quarterbacks coach that will teach EJ Manual how to be a better NFL quarterback. The OC for the Bills needs to have a good amount of control over the offense to be successful with Ryan, because he is so limited on offensive coaching. However, Ryan strikes me as the type of guy who would never do that because he wants control of the offense and defense, and thus the offense struggles. Ryan would be a perfect fit in a place like Atlanta where the offense is pretty much figured out but the defense needs a lot of work, somewhere like that Ryan would likely succeed, but here we are just going to see more of the same from him, he’s already guaranteed the Bills will make the playoffs and win the division under him, really Rex? How did the guarantees work in your last job? He’s shooting himself in the foot by doing this and raising the expectations too high for fans.
I think the Bills take a step backward after getting to 9-7 this year, with Marrone leaving and Orton retiring we get a QB in Manuel who isn't very good and the offense will be one of the worst in the NFL next year. The defense will be great, but you need to score points in order for the defense to protect the game. This just isn't a good fit for Ryan and I think he’ll be out within three years as the Bills coach, unless he decides to drastically alter his coaching methods, which seems unlikely.
Grade: D
Record: 7-9
Tune in soon for part two where I will analyze the hiring of Todd Bowles by the Jets and promotion of Jim Tomsula to head coach on the 49ers, on top of who I think both the Broncos and the Falcons should hire as their next head coach!